概率超90%！这一警报拉响A股“黑马板块”迎来爆发窗口
<div class="txtinfos" id="ContentBody" style="margin-top:0;"><p style="display:none;height:1px;overflow:hidden;"><br /></p><!-- EM_StockImg_Start --><p style="text-align:center;"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1261" data-code="BK1261|90|1" data-code2="BK1261|90|2|" class="EmImageRemark" target="_blank"><img src="https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=90.BK1261&imageType=k&token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&at=1" border="0" alt="K图 BK1261_0" data-code="K BK1261|90|1" data-code2="K BK1261|90|2|" style="border:#d1d1d1 1px solid;" width="578" height="276" /></a></p><!-- EM_StockImg_End --><p> 近期，A股农业相关板块持续走强，成为市场最受瞩目的方向之一。<br /></p><p> 截至9月7日收盘，申万<span id="bk_90.BK1261"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1261" class="keytip" data-code="90,BK1261">种植业</a></span><span id="bkquote_90.BK1261"></span>指数下半年以来的累计涨幅高达38.61%，远超沪指同期表现，包括<strong><span id="stock_1.600371"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600371" class="keytip" data-code="1,600371">万向德农</a></span><span id="quote_1.600371"></span></strong>在内的多只成份股股价翻倍，下游的<strong><span id="stock_1.600127"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600127" class="keytip" data-code="1,600127">金健米业</a></span><span id="quote_1.600127"></span></strong>区间累计涨幅更是高达160.19%。农业板块的全面爆发，其底层逻辑指向一个关键词——超强厄尔尼诺现象。</p><p> <strong>超强厄尔尼诺扰动粮食供给</strong></p><p> “厄尔尼诺”是热带<span id="stock_1.601099"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.601099" class="keytip" data-code="1,601099">太平洋</a></span><span id="quote_1.601099"></span>海洋与大气相互作用失衡，导致海水异常增暖的自然现象；它通过改变全球大气环流，引发各地干旱、洪涝等极端天气，直接威胁农业生产，是影响全球气候的重要信号之一。</p><p> 8月以来，赤道<span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.601099" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="1,601099">太平洋</span>升温明显加速。NOAA（美国国家海洋和大气管理局）最新周度数据显示，8月12日当周Nio3.4海温异常已升至+2.7℃，较7月初约+1.7℃继续快速抬升；同期Nio3达到+3.2℃、Nio1+2达到+4.0℃。<strong>NOAA最新判断2026年秋冬出现“非常强厄尔尼诺”的概率已超过90%。</strong></p><p> 强厄尔尼诺通常通过东南亚、印度、澳洲干旱及南美降水异常扰动粮食供给。联合国粮农组织预计，<strong>2026/27年度全球大米产量最新预报数为5.531亿吨（以碾米计），较2025/26年度修订后的数值下降1.9%</strong>，降幅主要源于种植户利润空间收窄以及厄尔尼诺现象相关的恶劣天气带来的影响。</p><p> 世界<span id="bk_90.BK1283"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1283" class="keytip" data-code="90,BK1283">银行</a></span><span id="bkquote_90.BK1283"></span>则警告，若厄尔尼诺现象出现并持续到2027年，受影响地区的水稻产量可能会下降20%至50%，其中南亚、南部非洲和东亚部分地区受到的影响最大。</p><p> 7月以来，国际<span id="stock_0.000061"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.000061" class="keytip" data-code="0,000061">农产品</a></span><span id="quote_0.000061"></span><span id="bk_90.BK1361"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1361" class="keytip" data-code="90,BK1361">期货</a></span><span id="bkquote_90.BK1361"></span>市场集体走强，CBOT大豆累计上涨超14%；CBOT玉米累计上涨超23%；CBOT小麦累计上涨超21%。</p><p> <span id="stock_1.601066"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.601066" class="keytip" data-code="1,601066">中信建投</a></span><span id="quote_1.601066"></span>指出，当前全球粮价整体仍处相对低位、库存尚有缓冲，但天气风险正在快速累积；若未来数月主产区减产逐步兑现，供需有望从“宽松库存”转向“减产去库”，粮价上行弹性值得重点关注。粮价上涨亦有望改善全球种植收益和农户投入意愿，并通过补种扩种及单位面积投入提升，进一步拉动<span id="bk_90.BK1436"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1436" class="keytip" data-code="90,BK1436">农药</a></span><span id="bkquote_90.BK1436"></span>、化肥等农资需求，农化景气有望受益。</p><p style="text-align:center;"><atarget="_blank" href="https://acttg.eastmoney.com/pub/xxlout_khmbdfcfappnew_random_0007467a"><img src="https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D25437144255738497376_w690h389.jpg" class="em_handle_adv_close" /></a></p><p> <strong>融资资金抢先加仓</strong></p><p> <strong>多只<span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1261" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="90,BK1261">种植业</span>个股业绩向好</strong></p><p> 下半年以来（截至9月4日），融资资金已抢先加仓多只<span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1261" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="90,BK1261">种植业</span>股，<strong><span id="stock_0.300189"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.300189" class="keytip" data-code="0,300189">神农种业</a></span><span id="quote_0.300189"></span>、<span id="stock_1.600108"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600108" class="keytip" data-code="1,600108">亚盛集团</a></span><span id="quote_1.600108"></span></strong>融资净买入额超过1亿元，分别为1.89亿元、1.50亿元；<strong><span id="stock_1.600354"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600354" class="keytip" data-code="1,600354">敦煌种业</a></span><span id="quote_1.600354"></span>、<span id="stock_0.300970"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.300970" class="keytip" data-code="0,300970">华绿生物</a></span><span id="quote_0.300970"></span>、<span id="stock_1.601952"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.601952" class="keytip" data-code="1,601952">苏垦农发</a></span><span id="quote_1.601952"></span></strong>融资净买入额均在5000万元以上。</p><center><img src="https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D25330205070901304973_w785h440.jpg" alt="Image" width="100%" class="rich_pages wxw-img" /></center><p> 种植业板块走势强劲，截至9月7日，申万种植业指数下半年累计涨幅高达38.61%，在申万二级行业中，仅次于<span id="bk_90.BK0732"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0732" class="keytip" data-code="90,BK0732">贵金属</a></span><span id="bkquote_90.BK0732"></span>43.24%的涨幅。</p><p> 下半年以来，成份股<strong><span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600371" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="1,600371">万向德农</span>、<span id="stock_1.600540"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600540" class="keytip" data-code="1,600540">新赛股份</a></span><span id="quote_1.600540"></span>、<span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600354" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="1,600354">敦煌种业</span></strong>股价实现翻倍，<strong><span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.300189" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="0,300189">神农种业</span>、<span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600108" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="1,600108">亚盛集团</span></strong>分别大涨78.7%、62.16%，<strong><span id="stock_1.600313"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600313" class="keytip" data-code="1,600313">农发种业</a></span><span id="quote_1.600313"></span>、<span id="stock_0.002041"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.002041" class="keytip" data-code="0,002041">登海种业</a></span><span id="quote_0.002041"></span>、<span id="stock_1.601118"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.601118" class="keytip" data-code="1,601118">海南橡胶</a></span><span id="quote_1.601118"></span>、<span id="stock_1.600359"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600359" class="keytip" data-code="1,600359">新农开发</a></span><span id="quote_1.600359"></span></strong>累计涨幅均超过40%。</p><p> 从净利润规模看，<strong><span id="stock_0.002215"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.002215" class="keytip" data-code="0,002215">诺普信</a></span><span id="quote_0.002215"></span></strong>居首，上半年归母净利润达7.65亿元；<strong><span id="stock_0.002772"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.002772" class="keytip" data-code="0,002772">众兴菌业</a></span><span id="quote_0.002772"></span>、<span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600354" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="1,600354">敦煌种业</span>、<span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.601952" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="1,601952">苏垦农发</span>、<span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600540" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="1,600540">新赛股份</span></strong>等上半年归母净利润均超过1亿元。</p><p> <strong><span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.002215" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="0,002215">诺普信</span></strong>上半年实现营收39.64亿元，同比增长7.76%；归母净利润7.65亿元，同比增长17.98%。公司业务涵盖农资分销、农业技术服务及现代特色生鲜消费，并战略性突破蓝莓单一作物产业链，蓝莓作为第二增长曲线势头良好。</p><p> <strong><span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.002215" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="0,002215">诺普信</span></strong>在投资者关系活动中表示，受厄尔尼诺影响，蓝莓进口量预计受冲击较大，进口峰值推后，果品口感也受影响。预计9—11月国产蓝莓供应空间充分，外加KA端配额比例提高，同步加大出口投放，共同支撑蓝莓价格体系平稳运行。</p><p> <strong><span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.002772" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="0,002772">众兴菌业</span></strong>上半年实现营收10.85亿元，同比增长19.55%；归母净利润1.91亿元，同比增长176.51%。<span id="stock_1.600369"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600369" class="keytip" data-code="1,600369">西南证券</a></span><span id="quote_1.600369"></span>指出，公司业绩增长的核心<span id="stock_0.920275"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.920275" class="keytip" data-code="0,920275">驱动力</a></span><span id="quote_0.920275"></span>在于主营产品金针菇和双孢菇销售价格同比提升，带动毛利率大幅改善。同时公司积极布局以冬虫夏草为代表的珍稀食药用菌新业务，打造新的盈利增长点。</p><p> 从净利润变动看，<strong><span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/1.600540" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="1,600540">新赛股份</span>、<span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.002772" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="0,002772">众兴菌业</span></strong>和<strong>敦煌种业</strong>上半年归母净利润同比实现翻倍增长，增幅依次为1819.68%、176.51%和165.68%；<strong><span web="1"target="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.300970" class="em_stock_key_common" data-code="0,300970">华绿生物</span></strong>和<strong><span id="stock_0.300511"><atarget="_blank" href="http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/0.300511" class="keytip" data-code="0,300511">雪榕生物</a></span><span id="quote_0.300511"></span></strong>同比实现扭亏为盈。</p><p> <strong>新赛股份</strong>上半年实现营收25.71亿元，同比增长77.15%；归母净利润1.25亿元，同比增长1819.68%。公司股价近期持续大涨，8月27日至9月2日连续五个交易日涨停，累计涨幅超过60%。</p><p> <strong>敦煌种业</strong>上半年实现营收8.68亿元，同比增长20.93%；归母净利润1.45亿元，同比增长165.68%。业绩增长主要系公司自有核心优势品种销量稳步攀升，销售毛利增加所致。</p><center><img src="https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D24899379174359902273_w774h849.jpg" alt="Image" width="100%" class="rich_pages wxw-img" /></center><p class="em_media">（文章来源：数据宝）</p> <!-- 正文中部 内嵌广告 -->
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